Monday, April 13, 2009

Weekly Recap: 4/06/09 - 4/09/09

Weekly Range:
  • Open 130.65
  • High 134.17
  • Low 126.88
  • Close 134.03
  • Point Change +4.60
  • % Change from last week close +3.55%

For another week in a row, the MXN has increased and the VXN has decreased. The higher highs and higher lows are making it difficult to put on May puts that are at least 25% otm. I still believe the market is due for a pullback, and when that occurs, I will trade short the May puts - just not sure yet what strike I will trade - the strike will depend on whether the pullback is news driven and deep, or just a shallow technical decline. With only 31 days until May expiry, the window for selling the puts at a reasonable price is closing. Meanwhile, the short April 91 puts have just 3 days until expiry and are 32% otm - remaining otm will provide the third month in a row of profits.

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